Chinese agriculture moving toward a green future?

In the past ten years China has pushed agriculture to become greener, but what does that really mean? A study examined 31 provinces from 2012 to 2021, using a model that combines ecosystem service value and carbon emissions. With these two indicators, the authors calculated Green Agricultural Efficiency (AGEE), a metric that blends food production and environmental impact. The average AGEE was 0.576, showing steady improvement. Provinces line up along a northeast‑southwest axis, where some regions grow faster than others, creating polarization. To explain this, researchers used the Green Total Factor Productivity (GTP) index, which shows growth mainly driven by technological expansion. Three improvement paths appear: technological catch‑up, green innovation, and technological progress, with the first two being most common. Local factors such as higher rural income, adequate irrigation and diversified cropping promote AGEE, while a dominant industrial structure hinders it. Moreover, irrigation has a positive spatial spillover, benefiting neighboring areas. In short, the study provides concrete ideas to make Chinese agriculture more sustainable and to balance economic development with environmental protection.

The study collected annual data on agricultural production, water use, CO₂ emissions and ecosystem service values (climate regulation, biodiversity, water filtration) for 31 Chinese provinces from 2012 to 2021. To measure Green Agricultural Efficiency (AGEE), a evaluation model was built that treats ecosystem service value as a positive output and carbon emissions as a negative output, normalising both per unit area. The Green Total Factor Productivity (GTP) index was computed using the Malmquist approach, which compares productivity across consecutive years and decomposes change into technological, scale and efficiency components. At the same time, a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was applied to capture spatial spillover effects: the AGEE of a province is regressed on local explanatory variables (rural income, irrigation, cropping structure, industrial sector) together with AGEE values of neighbouring provinces, the spillover term measuring reciprocal impact. Results show a mean AGEE of 0.576, steadily increasing, and a GTP average above 1, indicating net green productivity growth. Provinces in the northeast and southwest have the highest values, while central regions show stagnation. Factor analysis indicates that higher rural income, efficient irrigation systems and diversified crops promote AGEE, whereas a dominant industrial structure reduces efficiency. The positive spillover of irrigation suggests that improving water use in one area benefits surrounding regions. The three improvement pathways—technological catch‑up, green innovation and technological progress—vary by province, with green innovation being the most frequent. Policies should therefore encourage investments in clean technologies, optimise water use and promote agricultural diversification to reduce polarisation and accelerate the transition to truly sustainable agriculture.