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The Sun is approaching the peak of its 11th activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. This means more geomagnetic storms and mysterious "plasma bubbles" at the equator, known as Equatorial Plasma Bubbles. These phenomena create ionospheric scintillations: the satellite signal trembles like starlight on the horizon. For your smartphone, it is a nuisance; for a drone or a self-driving car, it can become a serious problem.

A research team put precision navigation, called Precise Point Positioning (PPP), to the test using over twenty months of data from stations scattered globally, mostly in the equatorial belt. They compared GPS-only performance with the GPS + Galileo combination, the European system. Data comes from the European Space Agency (ESA) final products and the MGEX network.

The verdict is clear. On "calm" days, precision is at the centimeter level. When the ionosphere shakes violently, positioning errors with GPS alone more than double. The culprit is "cycle slips": the receiver momentarily loses track of the radio wave phase, like stumbling in the dark.

The good news: integrating Galileo changes the game. More satellites in view, different frequencies, and better geometry allow the system to "hold firm" even when the sky is turbulent. It is like walking a tightrope: having two safety ropes (GPS and Galileo) is worth much more than one.

This research, published in *Remote Sensing*, reminds us that space is not empty: it is a dynamic environment we must learn to understand to navigate safely, on Earth and beyond.

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The study evaluates Precise Point Positioning (PPP) performance in ionosphere-free mode (L1/L2 linear combination for GPS, E1/E5a for Galileo) using ESA ultra-rapid and final orbit/clock products (MGEX as backup). The dataset spans 20+ months of the Solar Cycle 25 rising phase, focusing on low-latitude IGS/MGEX stations (< 20° geomagnetic), the epicenter of scintillations generated by Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs).

Under strong scintillation (S4 index > 0.5, sigma_phi > 0.3 rad), significant degradation is observed: convergence time doubles and 3D RMS error increases from ~2-3 cm (quiet days) to > 6-8 cm. The Up component is most sensitive. Phase residual analysis reveals a peak in uncorrected "cycle slips" caused by deep fading and rapid phase fluctuations (Fresnel diffraction).

Galileo integration (full constellation, 24+ operational satellites) provides three key advantages: 1) Reduced PDOP (Position Dilution of Precision) due to superior satellite geometry; 2) Wideband E5 AltBOC signals with high power spectral density, more robust against fading and thermal noise; 3) Increased frequency redundancy (E1, E5a, E5b, E6) enabling multiple ionosphere-free combinations and more reliable Integer Ambiguity Resolution (AR). Result: faster convergence, fewer outliers, and operational continuity maintained even during moderate geomagnetic storms (Kp 5-6).

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Authors:
Haroldo Antonio MarquesJoão Francisco Galera MonicoHeloísa Alves Silva MarquesMelania SusiDaniele BorioJihye ParkKinga Wȩzka
Date Published:
Original Article www.mdpi.com
Fact-check verified on 20/08/2026
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Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

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