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Technology supply chains, especially for smartphones, often face sudden demand spikes. When the market asks for more phones than are available, the chain's resilience – its ability to cope with such changes – can falter, causing profit loss and unhappy customers. An Australian research team built a mathematical model and simulation (using anyLogistix) to see how circular strategies like repair and reuse could soften these impacts. The model starts with an ideal scenario, then adds demand fluctuations, and finally incorporates circular tactics. Results show that without intervention, higher demand sharply cuts profit and order fulfillment. Conversely, introducing repair and reuse eases production pressure, boosts delivery rates, and raises earnings. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that key variables – such as repair costs or the return rate of used devices – significantly affect outcomes. In practice, companies adopting these circular approaches can turn a potential crisis into a sustainable growth opportunity, making their supply chain more flexible and eco‑friendly.

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The proposed mathematical model relies on a mixed‑integer linear programming (MILP) framework that simultaneously optimizes the flows of new, refurbished, and recycled products across the logistics network. Decision variables include quantities produced, quantities sent for repair, repair cycle times, and associated operational costs. The objective function maximizes total profit, integrating revenues from sales of new and refurbished devices, minus production, transportation, repair, and disposal costs. To simulate variable demand scenarios, a demand shock factor was introduced, modeled as a log‑normal random variable, allowing stress‑testing of the chain under sudden spikes. Sensitivity analysis varied key parameters – average repair cost (USDβ€―30‑80), device return rate (10‑40β€―%), and average reuse cycle time (5‑15β€―days) – revealing that lower repair costs and higher return rates significantly boost net profit (up to +15β€―%). Moreover, maintaining a stock of refurbished products reduces the need for additional production capacity, limiting physical expansion investments. Environmentally, the model also calculates COβ‚‚ emissions avoided through reuse, estimating a reduction of roughly 0.8β€―tons per 1,000 refurbished devices, thus supporting corporate sustainability goals.

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Authors:
Ananna PaulSuvash C. Saha
Date Published:
Original Article www.mdpi.com
Fact-check verified on 18/06/2026
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Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

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